OTTAWA — When Prime Minister Stephen Harper lands in Mexico next week, he will likely smile broadly and appear chummy as he meets with his North American counterparts: U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.
But relations between Canada and two of its key trading partners are more complicated than the handshake photographs will show. There is the ongoing saga of the Keystone XL pipeline project that has frustrated Harper, and an ongoing visa dispute with Mexico that has angered the Mexican government.
Those issues, alongside trade negotiations with other countries, will all be raised at the so-called Three Amigos summit that officially takes place Wednesday in Toluca, Mexico, Pena Nieto’s hometown. Before the summit, Harper will spend two days in Mexico City on an official visit, meeting with members of Pena Nieto’s cabinet.
Going into the trip, there was general expectation that Harper would take the opportunity to lift visa requirements for Mexicans wishing to visit Canada – thereby removing what that country viewed as an insult when it was enacted without warning in 2009. But that’s currently isn’t part of the trip’s agenda.
Harper has been under pressure to lift the visa requirements — first brought in to curb a spike in asylum claims from Mexico — from Canadian business groups who find it an impediment to investing in Mexico and attracting investments to Canada. A report by the Canadian Council of Chief Executives (CCCE), a business lobby group, argued in a report this month the two countries can’t “reinvigorate” their relationship “until the visa is modified or removed.”
On Friday night, a senior government official, speaking only on condition of anonymity, said Harper and his team of ministers on the trip won’t announce changes to the visa rules.
“We do not have any plans to use the occasion of the visit to lift the visa restrictions,” the official said.
The Mexican representative to Canada has publicly lamented the visa requirements that have remained in place despite Mexico being listed as a safe country for visitors by the Canadian government. Similar visa rules for visitors from the Czech Republic have already been lifted.
“There’s no excuse on our part anymore,” said former Canadian diplomat to the U.S. Colin Robertson.
Instead, Harper will have the chance to focus on energy policy and help open a door for Canadian companies to Mexico’s oil and gas sector.
Mexico is opening its energy sector to foreign investment 76 years after nationalizing it in a bid to attract money needed to boost oil production that has dropped to 2.5 million barrels a day from 3.4 million in 2004, and continue to grow an economy that is expected to outpace Canada by 2030.
Beyond that, observers expect few, if any, major breakthroughs at the summit, such as a reboot of the North American Free Trade Agreement to have its 20-year-old provisions updated so the continent can act as a single trading bloc, similar to the European Union. Rather, the meeting will likely produce small agreements on the economy, environment and security — nothing controversial, but enough for each leader to promote back home.
For Harper, it will be another opportunity to lobby Obama to approve the Keystone XL pipeline. The fate of the $5.4 billion project, which would take Alberta crude from the oilsands to American refineries, rests on the recommendations of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and is embroiled in American domestic politics as the Democratic Party gears up for key mid-term elections.
Senior White House officials said Friday that what Obama will tell Harper won’t be any different from what the Americans have said publicly: the process is ongoing and Canada will know once a decision is made.
“I don’t think we’ll be introducing any new timeline,” said one official, who spoke with reporters on condition of anonymity. “There is nothing that we could say privately that we’re not already saying publicly.”
North American relations at a glance
- The value of Canadian imports from Mexico is about five times higher than exports. Canada exports about $5.4 billion in goods to Mexico, and imports $26.7 billion.
- Mexico is Canada’s fifth-largest destination for exports, behind the U.S., China, Britain and Japan, and the third largest source of imports after the U.S. and China.
- Canada and the U.S. are the largest trading partners in the world: In 2012, there was $710 billion in trade. There is about $1.4 million in trade every minute.
- Canada’s gross domestic product is about 50 per cent higher than Mexico’s GDP ($1.8 trillion versus $1.2 trillion), but the rate of growth in Mexico is higher: 3.6 per cent, versus 1.71 per cent in Canada.
- The United States GDP is about eight times larger than Mexico and Canada combined: $16.24 trillion. GDP growth is at three per cent.
Source: Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development; Canadian Council of Chief Executives; World Bank
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